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Exhibit 7 - Japan With the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age clearly evident in Taiwan and China, the appearance of the same events in Japan would provide useful validation. Ironically, most of the proxy and historical evidence comes from none other than Kyoto itself, the ancient capital of Japan. According to a study by Tagami [26] "On the Medieval Warm Period. It is not doughty [doubted? - J.D.] that there was a warm climate age in historical times of Japan. Many former studies, e.g. the study on the changes of cherry-blossom-viewing date in Kyoto, show the warm climate around the early this millennium. But they are not clear when the warm climate began and when it ended. And also they are not clear how it relate to the climate situation in other areas. In this study, climate in the Medieval Warm Period of Japan is reconstructed and also its condition is compared to that of other areas. Processing databases and the analysis Mainly the historical documents are used in this study. The data which are chosen from them are classified into two types. One is a seasonal climate type from the 7th century and the other is a daily weather type from the 10th century. The former type data are climatic hazards, unusual weathers, cherry-blossom-viewing dates, lake freezing dates and so on. The climatic hazards were drought, long rain, heavy snow, mild winter and so on. The latter type data are described in private diaries of nobles who lived in Kyoto. The databases have been prepared for the both type of them. And using the databases, climate around the Medieval Warm Period is reconstructed. It is as following way: first, seasonal climate charts are drawn, then climate condition of each season is examined. … Some remarks on the climate of the Medieval Warm Period As the results, some characteristics of climate are recognized around the Medieval Warm Period. However it is relatively hot conditions continued until the 8th century, cool condition appeared for short period in the late 9th century. Then warm conditions continued from the 10th century to the former half of the 15th century. After the latter half of 15th century, cool conditions appeared and then considerable cold conditions started from the 17th century. So, between the former and the latter cold ages, the warm condition is clear from the 10th century to the 14th century." The conclusions from this study underline the importance of not allowing a Euro-centric view of science to blind scientists to valuable work being done in non-western countries. In spite of the halting English used (thus the need to quote at length from it), the conclusion from Japan is clear and unambiguous - there was a Medieval Warm Period and a Little Ice Age, and they occurred at exactly the same times as found elsewhere in the world. A paper by J. Magnuson et al on freeze/melt dates for lakes and rivers around the world [15] gives further evidence of the Little Ice Age in Japan with data for freeze dates on Lake Suwa, in which earlier freeze dates indicate a cold climate, later freeze dates a warmer climate. Lake Suwa has the longest record of freeze dates in the study, with data going back to 1443 AD, almost three times longer than for any other water mass in the study. It too shows the impact of the Little Ice Age, as according to Magnuson et al. "Lake Suwa was ice covered for 240 out of 243 winters (99%) from 1443 to 1700, but only for 261 out of 291 winters (90%) from 1700 to 1985". The earlier `99%' period was right within the Little Ice Age. Exhibit 8 - Tasmania, Australia Tasmania is an island state of Australia, about the size of Maine, deep in southern latitudes. In this exhibit, we not only find confirmation of the Medieval Warm Period, but also obtain some insight into the origins - and the flaws - inherent in the `Hockey Stick' itself. Ed Cook, a prominent tree ring researcher, has been a frequent visitor to Tasmania over the past 10 years, taking tree ring samples from a unique species of long-lived softwood known as `Huon Pine' (Lagarostrobos Franklinii), some of the living trees being over 1,000 years old. Due to Tasmania's remoteness south of the Australian mainland, Cook's papers did not receive the critical examination they warranted, as there were flaws in both his handling of local data and in his conclusions. To calibrate the tree rings against temperature, Cook and his team used urban surface temperature records from the dry eastern half of the island to compare with tree rings taken from the wet western half, even though there were rural surface records in the west from which a more valid comparison could have been made. In his earlier studies, no allowance was given to the Fertilizer Effect of CO2, making his conclusions about recent decades invalid. Back in 1992, seven years before Mann's paper appeared, Ed Cook was the co-author of a paper in `Holocene' [3] in which a time series of Huon Pine tree rings going back to 900 AD was presented. Here is a scan of a graph he presented (colour added for emphasis and clarity).
Fig.10 - Huon Pine tree ring widths from Lake Johnston in western Tasmania From the above Huon Pine record, it is clear that there were strong growth surges from 940 - 1000 AD and from 1100-1200 AD, during the Medieval Warm Period. Cook acknowledges this fact in his paper. The Little Ice Age appears weak in this proxy record, attributed by Cook to the moderating influences of the Southern Ocean on such a small island. The growth spurt of the Huon Pines in the late 20th century (coloured yellow with an identification label added) cannot be attributed to climate alone, but must inevitably result from the CO2 Fertiliser Effect, a phenomenon not allowed for by Cook, but which has since found to be accelerating plant growth all over the world, exactly as predicted by plant biologists. When the late 20th century growth is discounted because of this factor, it is clear that climate was warmer during medieval times in Tasmania than is the case today. Cook's drawing of a heavy curved line to act as his `zero' line which he believes to be largely non-climatic in origin clearly imposes his own subjective view of what the data means. If on the other hand the `general shape of the growth trend' (as he puts it) is climatic in origin, the whole record would then indicate an even stronger imprint of the Medieval Warm Period. In the same paper, Cook used that subjective zero line as a basis to reconstruct growing season temperatures in Tasmania, producing a 25-year `low-pass filter' smoothed graph bearing a striking similarity to the later `Hockey Stick' produced by Mann. The result of this statistical processing is shown in Fig.11
Fig.11 - Temperature reconstruction from tree rings acc. to Cook [xx] According to Cook's explanation as to how he converted the tree ring widths graph of Fig.9 into the temperature reconstruction of Fig.10 (making the Medieval Warm Period all but disappear in the process), he calibrated the growth rings against surface temperatures recorded at three weather stations in Tasmania. He used Hobart (the island's capital city, pop. 130,000), Launceston (pop. 70,000), and Low Head Lighthouse on the north coast. Hobart has a documented heat island [21], Launceston is similarly affected, while Low Head has a proven local daytime anomaly [4] causing its daytime temperature to rise in recent decades due to vegetation growth close to the instrument creating a mini sun-trap. Upon these faulty records, he developed his whole reconstruction. A further flaw in his study was the geography of the island itself. Tasmania has two distinct climate regimes - a cool wet climate in the western half of the island, and a dry warmer climate in the eastern half. The sharp contrast between the two is very obvious even to visitors driving across the island (Fig.12).
Fig.12 - Tasmanian climatic zones and locations The Huon Pines were in the west, close to Mt. Read, in a very high rainfall region, but Cook's three calibrating temperature records came from the warmer, drier east. While his statistical treatments were elegant and esoteric, the faulty surface records he used invalidate the whole reconstruction exercise. Clearly, this must also be a fundamental flaw in the `Hockey Stick' itself, since it too is predominantly based on tree rings, particularly for the first half of the millennium, the rings being calibrated against the northern hemisphere surface record of temperature, a record which is itself severely contaminated by heat islands and other local error effects [4]. A further flaw in such calibration attempts will occur due to the Fertiliser Effect of CO2 enhancing tree ring growth, thus inserting an increasing and structural error into the calibration. Exhibit 9 - South Africa In a recent paper in the South African Journal of Science, Tyson et al [27] developed a climate history from oxygen 18 isotopes (a temperature proxy), carbon 14 isotopes (a proxy for solar activity), and colour density data obtained from a well-dated stalagmite in a cave in the Makapansgat Valley. According to the authors - "The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1°C cooler in the Little Ice Age and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the Medieval Warm Period. It was variable throughout the millennium, but considerably more so during the warming of the eleventh to thirteenth centuries. Extreme events in the record show distinct teleconnections with similar events in other parts of the world, in both the northern and southern hemispheres." They dated the Medieval Warm Period at pre-1000 to 1300 AD, with mean temperatures 6 to 7°F warmer than today, and dated the Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1800 with mean temperatures up to 2°F cooler than today. The authors then proceeded to attribute a cause to these two events. "The lowest temperature events recorded during the Little Ice Age in South Africa are shown to be coeval with the Maunder and Sporer Minima in solar irradiance. The medieval warming is shown to have been coincided with the cosmogenic 10Be and 14C isotopic maxima recorded in tree rings elsewhere in the world during the Medieval Maximum in solar radiation." The variability of the sun causing impacts on earth's climate, was reaffirmed by this South African study. All the climate changes they noted correlated with known changes on the sun. First published at http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
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