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Similar inferences can be made elsewhere in the world. For example, if whole populations suffered from drought-induced famine, we can infer a reduced rainfall. We don't need the proxies to tell us - indeed they might even mislead us. When a society is ravaged by great floods, we can infer increased precipitation. When the Polynesians were able to populate the Pacific Islands by outrigger boats, we can make climate inferences there too. The fact that the greenhouse sciences were reluctant to declare the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age as non-events in Europe suggests that the historical evidence was too overwhelming to make selected proxies believable. Such a claim for Europe would have been met with derision. While greenhouse science may regard proxies as being more objective than historical `anecdotes', that viewpoint is only shared among that peer group. The wider academic community, governments, and public opinion (the most important peer group of all) will give much more credibility to well-researched historical evidence. If the IPCC were genuine about the need for full information about millennial climate, they would involve historians everywhere to research their resources to determine past climates as observed and experienced by human societies. The fear of some global warming proponents is that the historians would indeed find the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age all over the world and that governments and public opinion would accept the historical accounts over tree rings. In Mann's original formulation, the `Hockey Stick' only applied to the Northern Hemisphere. However, the U.S. National Assessment treated it as if it were a global history by reproducing Mann's original graph with a new title implying it has global rather than hemispheric application [19]. This revised version of Mann's graph is shown in Fig.5.
Fig.5 - The `Hockey Stick' according to the U.S. `National Assessment' Apart from the subtle `globalisation' of the graph in the title, this version omits the wide error margins that were included with the original Mann graph (Fig.3), shown in yellow. These error margins were the only indication by Mann that his formulation could be wrong, conceding in his paper that the pre-1400 data was uncertain. The idea that global temperature 1,000 years ago could be calculated to an accuracy of 0.1°F based on a limited number of tree rings is simply not credible by any reasonable standard. The `National Assessment' disregarded these issues and threw its full weight behind the new theory with this stark assertion. "New studies indicate that temperatures in recent decades are higher than at any time in at least the past 1,000 years." - (NACC Overview p.11) Mann himself made a similar conclusion in his original paper with these concluding remarks in the abstract to his paper - "Our results suggest that the latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of at least the past millennium. The 1990's was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, at moderately high levels of confidence". The statement was dramatic and uncompromising, with barely a hint of the uncertainties inherent in his whole analysis. There was no dissent - except from those scientists who were already on record as being sceptical of global warming anyway. The final claim, that `1998 was the warmest year of the millennium' was exactly what the climate change industry wanted to hear in the run-up to the next round of conferences on the Kyoto Protocol. The `Hockey Stick' - True or False? To disprove the `Hockey Stick', it is sufficient to merely demonstrate conclusively the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and/or the Little Ice Age in proxy and/or historical evidence from around the world. According to the `falsifiability' principle of science, substantial physical evidence that contradicts a theory is sufficient to `falsify' that theory. To that end, `exhibits' of physical evidence are presented below to prove that not only is the `Hockey Stick' false, but that the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not only very real - but also global in extent.
In the Sargasso Sea (an area popularly known as the `Bermuda Triangle'), radiocarbon dating of marine organisms in sea bed sediments by L. Keigwin [12] demonstrates that sea surface temperatures were around 2°F cooler than today around 400 years ago (the Little Ice Age), and around 2°F warmer than today 1,000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period). In addition, the data also demonstrates that the period before 500 BC (the so-called Holocene Climatic Optimum) saw temperatures up to 4°F warmer - and without any greenhouse gas component to cause it. (See Fig.6 below) Fig.6 - 3,000 years of climate in the Sargasso Sea [x] That takes both key events well outside the European/Greenland region. Exhibit 2 - Caribbean Sea Measurements of oxygen isotopes in coral skeletons from Puerto Rico by Winter et al [32], compared modern isotope ratios with those of the distant past. Calibration of the coral isotopes to provide a sea surface temperature proxy was based on modern sea surface temperature records around Puerto Rico for the period 1983-1989. This provided the baseline for the researchers to test the coral for temperatures during known cold phases of the Little Ice Age, 1700-1710, 1780-1785, and 1810-1815. They found that during the Little Ice Age, sea surface temperature in the Caribbean was 2 - 3°C cooler than it is today, a truly massive reduction in temperature which could by no stretch of the imagination be local. Exhibit 3 - West Africa In an ocean drilling study off Cap Blanc, Mauritania, West Africa de Menocal et al [6] recovered ocean bed sediments from which various mineral and biological proxies were examined. According to their paper - "A faunal record of sea-surface temperature (SST) variations off West Africa documents a series of abrupt, millennial-scale cooling events, which punctuated the Holocene warm period. These events evidently resulted from increased southward advection of cooler temperate or subpolar waters to this subtropical location or from enhanced regional up-welling. The most recent of these events was the Little Ice Age, which occurred between 1300 to 1850 A.D., when subtropical SSTs were reduced by 3° to 4°C." - deMenocal et al. abstract The result was a profile of ocean temperature going back 2,500 years very similar to that acquired from the Sargasso Sea. Both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were strongly evident as demonstrated by Fig.7. In fact, deMenocal et al identified two periods of colder climate coinciding with two similar cold periods revealed in the Sargasso Sea.
Fig.7 - Sea Surface Temperature off West Africa, last 2,500 years That places the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age as existing throughout the North Atlantic Basin, from the tropics, to the Americas to Europe and the far North Atlantic to Greenland. That represents a huge slice of the northern hemisphere, making it virtually impossible that climate elsewhere in that hemisphere could negate the effect of those events in any hemispheric average. Exhibit 4 - Kenya, East Africa In Kenya, a study by Verschuren et al [29], extracted lake bed sediments from Lake Naivasha. According to their paper - "Our data indicate that, over the past millennium, equatorial east Africa has alternated between contrasting climate conditions, with significantly drier climate than today during the `Medieval Warm Period' (~AD 1000-1270) and a relatively wet climate during the `Little Ice Age' (~ AD 1270-1850) which was interrupted by three prolonged dry episodes." - Verschuren et al abstract They determined historical lake level and salinity measurements from proxy indicators in the lake bed sediments. The results are shown in Fig.8
Fig.8 - Climate change at Lake Naivasha, Kenya Here we see the main Little Ice Age of the late 1600s and 1700s, confirmed by the Sargasso and Cape Blanc data. During the Medieval Warm Period, the lake clearly endured a period of extended drought from 1000 to 1200 AD. Today the lake level is about half-way between these two extremes, suggesting that our present climate is poised about mid-way between these two historic extremes. Exhibit 5 - Quelccaya Glacier, Peru Ice cores from this glacier high in the Peruvian Andes yielded oxygen 18 isotopes which are a direct proxy for temperatures existing at the time the ice was laid down [23]. The Little Ice Age stands out clearly, and while the Medieval Warm Period is less pronounced than at other sites, the 20th century is clearly shown to be no warmer than existed in pre-Little Ice Age times. Indeed, some of the medieval temperature peaks are warmer than those of today. See Fig.9
Fig.9 - Oxygen Isotopes from the Quelccaya Glacier, Peru Since Peru is in the Southern Hemisphere, we have direct evidence at this site that these climatic events extended beyond the confines of the Northern Hemisphere. Exhibit 6 - Taiwan and China In Taiwan, Kuo-Yen Wei et al. performed lake sediment studies similar to those in Kenya, which again revealed the imprint of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age [13]. According to their summary - "The interlaminated dark and light colored lake sediments obtained from several mountain lakes appear to reflect large-scale wet and dry cycles over the past 2400 years (Chen et al., 1993; Lou et al, in press). The detected 450-years periodicity is similar to that of the solar oscillation. The Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD) and the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) were recognized (Lou et al., in press). These two epochs were also identified from palynological records from the Central Range (Liew et al., 1995)" They also referred to studies of annual to seasonal records from tree-rings "Studies of tree rings of Taiwan fir allowed to reconstruct past summer and winter temperatures of the alpine mountain area during the past 300 years. It is demonstrated that cold climate prevailed during the Little Ice Age (Tsou and Liu, 1995)." Finally in a synopsis of the various proxies studied in and around Taiwan - "During the past 2000 years, the climate has become warmer and wetter, intervened with the conspicuous Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD) and the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD). Tree-ring data confirmed also the effect of the Little Ice Age in alpine Taiwan mountains. Fluctuation of humidity over the past 2,400 years as derived from lake sediments suggests that the recognized dry/cold periods coincide with major historical commotion events in Chinese history." The verdict from Taiwan is thus conclusive. From a variety of proxy indicators, the same events are found even here, on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean. The Taiwan researchers even linked major `commotion events' in mainland China with these climatic events. According to Hong et al. [9] these events were also climate driven. Their study of oxygen isotopes in a peat bog in north-eastern China close to the border with North Korea, revealed a 6,000 year temperature history which was compared with carbon 14 solar proxies to match the temperature history with solar change. They estimated the temperature between 1100 and 1200 AD at around 2°F warmer than today, matching the Medieval Warm Period, confirmed by the existence at that time of plant remains from species that normally exist only in southern China. They found very cold temperatures between around 1550 and 1750, matching the Little Ice Age found elsewhere. Finally, they too found the solar connection in these climate changes, the carbon 14 solar proxy correlating with the oxygen 18 temperature proxy. In other words, the sun caused climate changes in China. First published at http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
Eustace Mullins' carefully researched and documented treatise picks up from Walbert's expose' of control of the money supply and the economy and brings it to the mid 1980's.
How control of the world's money has inexorably led to an ever tighter
grip on control of the world's people.
Uranium Wars by Leuren Moret
How control of the world's people has inexorably led to wider use of
depopulation methods which include spreading radioactivity in food,
water, air, and the human genome.
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© 2007, Allen Aslan Heart / White Eagle Soaring of the Little Shell Pembina Band, a
Treaty |
Exhibit 1 - The
Sargasso Sea
