|
|
Similar
inferences can be made elsewhere in the world. For example, if whole
populations suffered from drought-induced famine, we can infer a reduced
rainfall. We don't need the proxies to tell us - indeed they might even
mislead us. When a society is ravaged by great floods, we can infer
increased precipitation. When the Polynesians were able to populate the
Pacific Islands by outrigger boats, we can make climate inferences there
too.
The fact that the greenhouse
sciences were reluctant to declare the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice
Age as non-events in Europe suggests that the historical evidence was too
overwhelming to make selected proxies believable. Such a claim for Europe
would have been met with derision. While greenhouse science may regard
proxies as being more objective than historical `anecdotes', that viewpoint
is only shared among that peer group. The wider academic community,
governments, and public opinion (the
most important peer group of all) will
give much more credibility to well-researched historical evidence.
If the IPCC were
genuine about the need for full information about millennial climate, they
would involve historians everywhere to research their resources to determine
past climates as observed and experienced by human societies. The fear of
some global warming proponents is that the historians would indeed find the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age all over the world and that
governments and public opinion would accept the historical accounts over
tree rings.
In Mann's original
formulation, the `Hockey Stick' only applied to the Northern Hemisphere.
However, the U.S. National Assessment treated it as if it were a global
history by reproducing Mann's original graph with a new title implying it
has global rather than hemispheric application [19].
This revised version of Mann's graph is shown in Fig.5.

Fig.5 - The
`Hockey Stick' according to the U.S. `National Assessment'
Apart from the subtle `globalisation'
of the graph in the title, this version omits the wide error margins that
were included with the original Mann graph
(Fig.3),
shown in yellow. These error margins were the only indication by Mann that
his formulation could be wrong, conceding in his paper that the pre-1400
data was uncertain. The idea that global temperature 1,000 years ago could
be calculated to an accuracy of 0.1°F based on a limited number of tree
rings is simply not credible by any reasonable standard.
The `National
Assessment' disregarded these issues and threw its full weight behind the
new theory with this stark assertion.
"New studies indicate that
temperatures in recent decades are higher than at any time in at least the
past 1,000 years." -
(NACC Overview p.11)
Mann himself
made a similar conclusion in his original paper with these concluding
remarks in the abstract to his paper -
"Our results
suggest that the latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of at
least the past millennium. The 1990's was the warmest decade, and 1998 the
warmest year, at moderately high levels of confidence".
The statement
was dramatic and uncompromising, with barely a hint of the uncertainties
inherent in his whole analysis. There was no dissent - except from those
scientists who were already on record as being sceptical of global warming
anyway. The final claim, that `1998 was the warmest year of the millennium'
was exactly what the climate change industry wanted to hear in the run-up to
the next round of conferences on the Kyoto Protocol.
The `Hockey
Stick' - True or False?
To disprove the
`Hockey Stick', it is sufficient to merely demonstrate conclusively the
existence of the Medieval Warm Period and/or the Little Ice Age in proxy
and/or historical evidence from around the world. According to the `falsifiability'
principle of science, substantial physical evidence that contradicts a
theory is sufficient to `falsify' that theory. To that end, `exhibits' of
physical evidence are presented below to prove that not only is the `Hockey
Stick' false, but that the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not
only very real - but also global in extent.
Exhibit 1 - The
Sargasso Sea
In the Sargasso Sea
(an area popularly known as the `Bermuda
Triangle'), radiocarbon dating of
marine organisms in sea bed sediments by L. Keigwin
[12] demonstrates that sea surface
temperatures were around 2°F cooler than today around 400 years ago
(the Little Ice Age),
and around 2°F warmer than today 1,000 years ago
(the Medieval Warm Period).
In addition, the data also demonstrates that the period before 500 BC
(the so-called Holocene Climatic Optimum) saw
temperatures up to 4°F warmer - and without any greenhouse gas component to
cause it. (See Fig.6 below)
Fig.6 - 3,000 years of
climate in the Sargasso Sea [x]
That takes both
key events well outside the European/Greenland region.
Exhibit 2 -
Caribbean Sea
Measurements of oxygen
isotopes in coral skeletons from Puerto Rico by Winter et al
[32], compared modern
isotope ratios with those of the distant past. Calibration of the coral
isotopes to provide a sea surface temperature proxy was based on modern sea
surface temperature records around Puerto Rico for the period 1983-1989.
This provided the baseline for the researchers to test the coral for
temperatures during known cold phases of the Little Ice Age, 1700-1710,
1780-1785, and 1810-1815. They found that during the Little Ice Age, sea
surface temperature in the Caribbean was 2 - 3°C cooler than it is today, a
truly massive reduction in temperature which could by no stretch of the
imagination be local.
Exhibit 3 - West
Africa
In an ocean drilling study
off Cap Blanc, Mauritania, West Africa de Menocal et al
[6] recovered ocean
bed sediments from which various mineral and biological proxies were
examined. According to their paper -
"A faunal record of
sea-surface temperature (SST)
variations off West Africa documents a series of abrupt, millennial-scale
cooling events, which punctuated the Holocene warm period. These events
evidently resulted from increased southward advection of cooler temperate
or subpolar waters to this subtropical location or from enhanced regional
up-welling. The most recent of these events was the Little Ice Age, which
occurred between 1300 to 1850 A.D., when subtropical SSTs were reduced by
3° to 4°C." - deMenocal et
al. abstract
The result was a
profile of ocean temperature going back 2,500 years very similar to that
acquired from the Sargasso Sea. Both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice
Age were strongly evident as demonstrated by Fig.7. In fact, deMenocal et al
identified two periods of colder climate coinciding with two similar cold
periods revealed in the Sargasso Sea.

Fig.7 - Sea
Surface Temperature off West Africa, last 2,500 years
That places the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age as existing throughout the North
Atlantic Basin, from the tropics, to the Americas to Europe and the far
North Atlantic to Greenland. That represents a huge slice of the northern
hemisphere, making it virtually impossible that climate elsewhere in that
hemisphere could negate the effect of those events in any hemispheric
average.
Exhibit 4 -
Kenya, East Africa
In Kenya, a study by
Verschuren et al [29],
extracted lake bed sediments from Lake Naivasha. According to their paper -
"Our data indicate that,
over the past millennium, equatorial east Africa has alternated between
contrasting climate conditions, with significantly drier climate than
today during the `Medieval Warm Period' (~AD 1000-1270) and a
relatively wet climate during the `Little Ice Age' (~ AD 1270-1850) which
was interrupted by three prolonged dry episodes."
- Verschuren et al abstract
They determined
historical lake level and salinity measurements from proxy indicators in the
lake bed sediments. The results are shown in Fig.8

Fig.8 -
Climate change at Lake Naivasha, Kenya
Here we see the
main Little Ice Age of the late 1600s and 1700s, confirmed by the Sargasso
and Cape Blanc data. During the Medieval Warm Period, the lake clearly
endured a period of extended drought from 1000 to 1200 AD. Today the lake
level is about half-way between these two extremes, suggesting that our
present climate is poised about mid-way between these two historic extremes.
Exhibit 5 -
Quelccaya Glacier, Peru
Ice cores from this glacier
high in the Peruvian Andes yielded oxygen 18 isotopes which are a direct
proxy for temperatures existing at the time the ice was laid down
[23]. The Little Ice
Age stands out clearly, and while the Medieval Warm Period is less
pronounced than at other sites, the 20th century is clearly shown to be no
warmer than existed in pre-Little Ice Age times. Indeed, some of the
medieval temperature peaks are warmer than those of today. See Fig.9

Fig.9 -
Oxygen Isotopes from the Quelccaya Glacier, Peru
Since Peru is in
the Southern Hemisphere, we have direct evidence at this site that these
climatic events extended beyond the confines of the Northern Hemisphere.
Exhibit 6 -
Taiwan and China
In Taiwan, Kuo-Yen Wei et al.
performed lake sediment studies similar to those in Kenya, which again
revealed the imprint of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
[13]. According to their summary -
"The interlaminated dark
and light colored lake sediments obtained from several mountain lakes
appear to reflect large-scale wet and dry cycles over the past 2400 years (Chen et al., 1993; Lou et al,
in press). The detected 450-years periodicity
is similar to that of the solar oscillation. The Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD)
and the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) were recognized (Lou et
al., in press). These two epochs were also
identified from palynological records from the Central Range (Liew et al., 1995)"
They also
referred to studies of annual to seasonal records from tree-rings
"Studies of tree rings of
Taiwan fir allowed to reconstruct past summer and winter temperatures of
the alpine mountain area during the past 300 years. It is demonstrated
that cold climate prevailed during the Little Ice Age (Tsou and Liu, 1995)."
Finally in a
synopsis of the various proxies studied in and around Taiwan -
"During the past 2000
years, the climate has become warmer and wetter, intervened with the
conspicuous Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD) and the
Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD).
Tree-ring data confirmed also the effect of the Little Ice Age in alpine
Taiwan mountains. Fluctuation of humidity over the past 2,400 years as
derived from lake sediments suggests that the recognized dry/cold periods
coincide with major historical commotion events in Chinese history."
The verdict from
Taiwan is thus conclusive. From a variety of proxy indicators, the same
events are found even here, on the western rim of the Pacific Ocean.
The Taiwan researchers even
linked major `commotion events' in mainland China with these climatic
events. According to Hong et al. [9]
these events were also climate driven. Their study of oxygen isotopes in a
peat bog in north-eastern China close to the border with North Korea,
revealed a 6,000 year temperature history which was compared with carbon 14
solar proxies to match the temperature history with solar change.
They estimated
the temperature between 1100 and 1200 AD at around 2°F warmer than today,
matching the Medieval Warm Period, confirmed by the existence at that time
of plant remains from species that normally exist only in southern China.
They found very cold temperatures between around 1550 and 1750, matching the
Little Ice Age found elsewhere.
Finally, they
too found the solar connection in these climate changes, the carbon 14 solar
proxy correlating with the oxygen 18 temperature proxy. In other words, the
sun caused climate changes in China.
The Hockey Stick A New Low in Climate Science
- 2 -
3 -
4
First published at
http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
History of Banking Fraud:
The Coming Battle
By M. W. WALBERT
The Coming Battle
documents from Congressional records, newspaper reports and writings by
the founding fathers and others a chronology of events long forgotten that
shaped our fledgling nation from 1776 to 1899. Read about the manipulation
of our money and its supply, the intentional creation of recessions,
depressions and panics, manipulation of the stock markets, and the
demonetization of silver.
Secrets of the Federal Reserve
by Eustace Mullins
Eustace Mullins' carefully
researched and documented treatise picks up from Walbert's expose' of
control of the money supply and the economy and
brings it to the mid 1980's.
The
World Order
How control of the world's money has inexorably led to an ever tighter
grip on control of the world's people.
Uranium Wars by Leuren Moret
How control of the world's people has inexorably led to wider use of
depopulation methods which include spreading radioactivity in food,
water, air, and the human genome.
Taking Back Your Power
by Allen Aslan Heart
WHAT CAN YOU DO? Stop playing THEIR game. Take back
your power. Stop paying taxes that are not legal or lawful. Stop paying
bills you don't really owe. Stop using THEIR money. There ARE ways if you
open your mind and look for the gaps in their fences that keep the sheeple
in their pasture. Are you chattel or a real person? You are the one who
makes that choice.
Our experienced
debt elimination service professionals have been
helping people with
debt elimination,
tax freedom, and
credit repair for over
ten years. To contact them
click here.
This
Real Debt Elimination
information is
for the purpose of education and broadening horizons ONLY.
See
Real Debt Elimination links
Your Credit File Rights
For debt elimination to be successful
you must know your rights. Get rid of debt.
Zombie Debt:
Debt is Hard to Kill
There's a hot new growth
industry: companies that buy ancient bad debts for pennies and squeeze
you to pay. Here's debt elimination ideas how to get them off your
back.
Sleazy
New Debt Collector Tactics
It may not be your debt,
but it could be your problem. Collection agencies are bullying
blameless consumers into paying debts they never owed. Eliminate your
debt and be free. Get rid of debt.
Debt Collection Practices: When
Hardball Tactics Go Too Far
Dealing with a debt
collector can be one of life's most stressful experiences. Harassing
calls, threats, and use of obscene language can drive you to the edge.
Debt elimination is the solution.
An
Outcry Rises as Debt Collectors Play Rough
The rise in American consumer debt
has been accompanied by a sharp increase in complaints about
aggressive and sometimes unscrupulous tactics by debt collection
agencies, a phenomenon that has government regulators increasingly
concerned. Debt elimination removes any advantage they claim.
Get rid of debt.
Debt Collection Puts on a
Suit
As consumer loans hit an all-time
high, the industry gets more sophisticated. That means that debt
elimination skills must are even more important.
© 2007, Allen Aslan Heart / White Eagle Soaring of the Little Shell Pembina Band, a
Treaty
Tribe of the Ojibwe Nation
|