IPCC (Houghton et al., 1990) claims in their Section 1.2.5 three evidences
that the contemporary atmospheric CO2 increase is anthropogenic: (1) CO2
measurements from ice cores show a 21% rise from 280 to 353 ppmv (parts per
million by volume) since pre-industrial times; (2) the atmospheric CO2
increase closely parallels the accumulated emission trends from fossil fuel
combustion and from land use changes, although the annual increase has been
smaller each year than the fossil CO2 input [some 50% deviation, e.g. Kerr,
1992]; (3) the observed isotopic trends of 13-C and 14-C agree qualitatively
with those expected due to the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the
biosphere, and they are quantitatively consistent with results from carbon
cycle modelling.
Jaworowski et al. (1992 a, 1992 b) reviewed published CO2 measurements from
ice cores, and rejected this method because it can give reliable data for
neither the CO2 level history of paleoatmospheres nor the pre-industrial
atmospheric CO2 level. The paper by Jaworowski et al. (1992 a) and this
paper have addressed recent atmospheric CO2 measurements by a non-validated
instrumental method with results visually selected and "edited", deviating
from unselected measurements of constant CO2 levels by the highly accurate
wet-chemical technique at 19 stations in Northern Europe (Bischof, 1960).
Hence a rise in global atmospheric CO2 level has not yet been significantly
justified by validated methods and sound statistics. Stable carbon isotope
mass balance calculations based on 13-C/12-C measurements prove why IPCC's
wrong model creates their inexplicable 50% "missing sink" (Segalstad, 1996).
Carbon isotopic trends agree qualitatively with fossil fuel CO2 emissions as
stated by IPCC, but show quantitatively a fossil fuel CO2 component of
maximum 4 % versus the 21% claimed by IPCC. This paper has further examined
and rejected the carbon cycle modelling forming the basis for IPCC evidence.
It is shown that carbon cycle modelling based on non-equilibrium models,
remote from observed reality and chemical laws, made to fit
non-representative data through the use of non-linear correction "buffer"
factors constructed from a pre-conceived hypothesis, constitute a circular
argument and with no scientific validity. IPCC's non-realistic carbon cycle
modelling will simply refute reality, like the existence of carbonated beer
or soda "pop" as we know it.
The "Greenhouse Effect Global Warming" dogma is based on the hypothesis that
Man's release of CO2 from fossil fuel burning will cause this extra
atmospheric CO2 to increase the temperature of the lower atmosphere. It is
important to note that due to the atmosphere's extremely low heat capacity,
the heat energy accumulated in the atmosphere from this process will be
minute and unable to change the Earth's climate. This compared to the
enormous heat energy stored in the oceans, and the enormous heat energy
required to melt the cryosphere (ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, and
glaciers). Hence it will be impossible to melt the Earth's ice caps and
thereby increase the sea level just by increasing the heat energy of the
atmosphere through a few percent of added heat absorbing anthropogenic CO2
in the lower atmosphere (Segalstad, 1996). Further, there exists no proof of
a constantly rising trend for the temperature of the world's lower
atmosphere since the industrial revolution (e.g., Jaworowski et al., 1992 a;
Michaels & Knappenberger, 1996).
A dogma is, according to dictionaries, considered an arrogant and
authoritative declaration of opinion based on a priori principles, not on
induction, and often as a sacrament or commandment for religious belief.
Review of the basis for the "Greenhouse Effect Global Warming" doom makes
its components appear neither supported by reality nor the scientific method
of natural sciences, making it rather a preconceived idea or tenet sharing
most features of a dogma.
Acknowledgements: Drs. H.M. Seip and J.S. Fuglestvedt at "Cicero" (the
Norwegian government constituted institute for climate politics) are
acknowledged for discussions leading to the strengthening and clarification
of the conclusions of this paper.
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Biography of Tom Victor Segalstad
Born in Norway in 1949. University degrees (natural sciences with geology)
from the University of Oslo. Has conducted university research, publishing,
and teaching in geochemistry, mineralogy, petrology, volcanology, structural
geology, ore geology, and geophysics at the University of Oslo, Norway, and
the Pennsylvania State University, USA. At present keeping a professional
position as Associate Professor of Geochemistry at the University of Oslo,
with responsibility for stable isotope geochemistry. He is past head of the
Mineralogical-Geological Museum at the University of Oslo; and past Director
of the Natural History Museums and Botanical Garden of the University of
Oslo. He is a member of different international and national professional
working groups and committees.
Oslo, July 1997
Printed in:
Bate, R. (Ed.): “Global Warming: The Continuing Debate", European Science
and Environment Forum (ESEF), Cambridge, England (ISBN 0-9527734-2-2), pages
184-219, 1998.
Printing errors in the ESEF Vol. 1 paper:
Segalstad, T.V. (1996): The distribution of CO2 between atmosphere,
hydrosphere, and lithosphere; minimal influence from anthropogenic CO2 on
the global "Greenhouse Effect". In: Emsley, J. (Ed.): The Global Warming
Debate. The report of the European Science and Environment Forum. Bourne
Press, Ltd., Bournemouth, Dorset, UK, 41-50.
Page 45, line 4 should read: controls the value of an intensive (= mass
independent) thermodynamic variable (pressure,
Page 45, 7th last line should read: and a calcium silicate + CO2 ⇋ calcium
carbonate + SiO2 buffer
Page 45, 5th and 4th last lines should read: "security net" underlying the
most important buffer: CO2 (g) ⇋ HCO3- (aq) ⇋ CaCO3 (s). All together these
buffers, in principle, add
Page 46: all Greek sigmas should read Greek deltas.
Page 46, footnote should read:
1
(13C/12C)sample – (13C/12C)standard
delta13C = ________________________ ● 1000 permil
(13C/12C)standard
where the reference standard used here is PDB (Pee Dee Belemnite) CaCO3.
Page 47, 5th line: d13C should read delta13C.
Carbon cycle modelling and CO2 -
2 -
3 -
4
http://folk.uio.no/tomvs/esef/ESEF3VO2.htm
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